The Assignment Sometimes ones choices may involve catastrophic decisions and
bear great risk and yet there can be no clear answer. For example,
if a person gets a divorce, shutters a plant, sells a losing
investment, or closes their business, will he or she be better off?
The following case incorporates nearly all of the material you have
covered this far and presents an example of one such choice where
nearly all of the alternatives have a significant downside
risk. Review the following information from the article A
Cost-Benefit Analysis of the New Orleans Flood Protection System
by Stéphane Hallegatte (2005): Assume that the availability heuristics make people more risk
averse (populations drop, at least in the short term). Consider how
this would affect the local economy. You are an analyst at FEMA and are in charge of developing a
recommendation for both the state and the local governments on
whether or not to redevelop New Orleans. Write a report with your recommendation. Address the following
in your report:
Part A
Note:You need not have absolute amounts but your
relevant utilities should be proportional to one another.
Part B
Write an 812-page report in Word format. Apply APA standards to
citation of sources. Use proper spelling and grammar throughout,
and keep the text legible and balanced with visuals. Use the
following file naming convention:
LastnameFirstInitial_M5_A1.doc. By
Saturday, October 4, 2014, deliver your assignment
to the
M5: Assignment 1 Dropbox. Hallegatte, S. (2006). A cost-benefit analysis of the New
Orleans flood protection system.
Center for Environmental Sciences and Policy. Stanford
University. Retrieved from
Vastag, B., & Rein, L. (2011, May 11). In Louisiana, a
choice between two floods.
The
Washington Post. Retrieved from
Analyze the economics of New Orleans in light of the given
parameters and develop a Cost- Benefit Analysis (CBA) for
rebuilding. Evaluate the value of that CBA for each constituency and
integrate these estimates into a scenario model and/or decision
tree. Analyze the results. Discuss the decision pitfalls to which constituencies may be
susceptible and make a recommendation on how to alleviate those
pressures. Starting with the CBA, estimate the relevant expected utility
for these parties. Make a case for or against rebuilding the city of New Orleans.
This should be an executive summarybe concise and brief. Include
exhibits. Discuss how social heuristics could be used to an advantage,
both ethically and unethically, in making a case. Estimate what percentage of the class was for, versus against,
rebuilding and provide a confidence interval for the estimate. Ensure academic writing, such as grammar, spelling, and
attribution of sources, is appropriate.
Hint:If you assume that your
totalCBA for New Orleans is fixed for each constituency
(do not forget the overlaps), then each constituency will have a
piece of the utility pie.
http://hal.cirad.fr/docs/00/16/46/28/PDF/Hallegatte_NewOrleans_CBA9.pdf
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/in-louisiana-a-choice-between-two-
floods/2011/05/11/AFrjFotG_story.html
Assignment 1 Grading Criteria
Maximum Points
32
68
32
32
68
32
8
28
Total:
300
