Even complicated and confusing topics will be easily developed and covered if you request our help writing an essay. Place an order today!

Scenario: Using the same situation from the Module 3 SLP, recall that you are deciding among three investments. You have heard of an expert who has a highly reliable “track record” in the correct identification of favorable vs. unfavorable market conditions. You are now considering whether to consult this “expert.” Therefore, you need to determine whether it would be worth paying the expert’s fee to get his prediction. You recognize that you need to do further analysis to determine the value of the information that the expert might provide.

In order to simplify the analysis, you have decided to look at two possible outcomes for each alternative (instead of three). You are interested in whether the market will be Favorable or Unfavorable, so you have collapsed the Medium and Low outcomes. Here are the three alternatives with their respective payoffs and probabilities.

Option A: Real estate development. This is a risky opportunity with the possibility of a high payoff, but also with no payoff at all. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the payoffs and probabilities:

High/Favorable NPV: $7.5 million, Pr = 0.5

Unfavorable NPV: $2.0 million, Pr = 0.5

Option B: Retail franchise for Just Hats, a boutique-type store selling fashion hats for men and women. This also is a risky opportunity but less so than Option A. It has the potential for less risk of failure, but also a lower payoff. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the NPV of the payoffs and probabilities.

High/Favorable NPV: $4.5 million, Pr = 0.75

Unfavorable NPV: $2.5 million, Pr = 0.25

Option C: High Yield Municipal Bonds. This option has low risk and is assumed to be a Certainty. So there is only one outcome with probability of 1.0:

NPV: $2.25 million, Pr = 1.0

You have contacted the expert and received a letter stating his track record which you have checked out using several resources. Here is his stated track record:

 

True State of the Market

Expert Prediction

Favorable

Unfavorable

Predicts “Favorable”

.9

.3

Predicts “Unfavorable”

.1

.7

You realize that this situation is a bit complicated since it requires the expert to analyze and predict the state of two different markets: the real estate market and the retail hat market. You think through the issues of probabilities and how to calculate the joint probabilities of both markets going up, both going down, or one up and the other down. Based on your original estimates of success, here are your calculations of the single probabilities and joint probabilities of the markets.

Probabilities

Favorable

Unfavorable

A: Real Estate

0.50

0.50

B: Just Hats

0.75

0.25

Joint Probabilities

A Fav, B Fav (A+, B+)

0.375

A Unf, B Unf (A-, B-)

0.125

A Fav, B Unf (A+, B-)

0.125

A Unf, B Fav (A-, B+)

0.375

Finally, after a great deal of analysis and calculation, you have determined the Posterior probabilities of Favorable and Unfavorable Markets for the Real Estate business and the boutique hat business.

 

 

Real Estate

Just Hats

 

 

F

U

F

U

0.45

says "F/F"

0.75

0.25

0.90

0.10

0.15

says "F/U"

0.75

0.25

0.30

0.70

0.30

says "U/F"

0.125

0.875

0.90

0.10

0.10

says "U/U"

0.125

0.875

0.30

0.70

For example, this table says that there is 45% chance that the expert will predict Favorable for both markets (F/F), and when he makes this prediction, there is a 75% chance that the Real Estate market will be favorable and 25% chance that it won’t, and also a 90% chance that the Hat market will be Favorable and 10% chance it won’t.

You have developed a Decision Tree showing the original collapsed solution and also showing an expanded Decision Tree for evaluating the value of the expert’s information. You need to enter the probabilities into this tree to see if the expert’s information will increase the overall expected value of your decision. Download the Excel file with the incomplete Decision Tree: Decision Tree for BUS520 SLP 4

Assignment

Complete the information in the Decision Tree in the Excel file. Determine the Expected NPV of the decision if you were to consult the Expert. Does use of the Expert increase the value of your analysis? If so, by how much?

testimonials icon
Your company's Vice President of Human Resources has approached your team for assistance in recruiting and developing your organizatio...
testimonials icon
Explain the general evolutionary lines of both the governmental and religious cultural histories of the country, giving probable reasons for evo...
testimonials icon
Question Description I’m working on a English project and need a ref...
testimonials icon
complete five short essay questions. Your answers must be in complete sentences.Question 1Question 2Question 3Question...
testimonials icon
Your specific assignment is to research, analyze, and prepare a report for the CFO on the actual financial perform...
testimonials icon
Why do you think entrepreneurs tend to overestimate market potential? What three steps or techniques would you recommend a new entrepre...
testimonials icon
Select a small business that you visit often (e.g., coffee shop, bookstore, sporting goods store, etc.). Write a 6-8 page paper in wh...
testimonials icon
 Required Resources Note:...
testimonials icon
Identify one peer reviewed article from a nursing journal focused on the health needs of adults 1 Exploring health risks across the li...
testimonials icon
Volcanoes are generally not preserved in the geologic rock record as they are usually eroded away. However, the various materials erupted from volc...
testimonials icon
Report: Target marketTarget marketby HALGeneral metrics2,726427231 min 42 sec3 min 17 seccharacterswordssentencesreadingtimespeakingtimeWriting Issue...

Other samples, services and questions:

Calculate Price

When you use PaperHelp, you save one valuable — TIME

You can spend it for more important things than paper writing.

Approx. price
$65
Order a paper. Study better. Sleep tight. Calculate Price!
Created with Sketch.
Calculate Price
Approx. price
$65